Many years ago, two futuristic visions emerged about humanity’s technological future. One predicted that computers would replace people; the other that computers and automation would merely support our daily activities. Time has shown both to be partly true. Yet no society has previously experienced robotization progressing so rapidly alongside the growing power and importance of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML). We can only assume that changes in organizations and production will resemble those observed during the previous industrial revolution, in keeping with Hegel’s thesis that “history teaches us that humanity has learned nothing from it.” Or could something happen that completely changes the meaning of people and their work? The impact of staff shortages on business operations
The relationship between employee shortages and economic growth is clear: shortages, particularly of highly qualified people, have a strongly destructive effect on economic development. In Poland, technological and development trends overlap with a deteriorating demographic situation. Low unemployment combined with wage pressure and minimum-wage increases may significantly restrict Polish companies’ ability to use their investment potential. Employers are even more concerned, however, about a shortage of people with suitable qualifications
[i]. Greater efficiency and productivity, better training, and attention to employee skills can help. New IT technologies can automate many business processes, while rapidly developing, AI-assisted robotization can replace people in the most laborious and repetitive activities. Nobody knows how business will operate several or a dozen years from now; unexpected developments should be expected.
What happens when robots fill vacant positions?
The outcome will probably resemble what happened more than forty years ago. After the first electronic spreadsheet, VisiCalc, appeared in the United States, over 400,000 accountants lost their jobs, but more than 600,000 new positions requiring new skills were created
[ii]. The transition to electronic accounting documents generated additional economic growth and increased demand for human work. The same process is happening again. Some people may lose jobs; where staff are scarce, employers will accept fewer positions and replace people with bots. AI- and ML-assisted software will perform relatively simple, repetitive activities without fatigue, leave, or social benefits—a clear gain for companies. For people, rapidly changing skills will be a major challenge and may be extremely difficult or impossible for some. Concern about the labor market as robotization and AI spread is therefore understandable. Chatbots and voicebots are already sufficiently common for many companies to place them on the front line of
customer contact. Bots operate 24 hours a day, seven days a week, supply increasingly tailored information, relieve employees of routine duties, serve more people, and help manage demand. Conversational artificial intelligence (
Conversational Artificial Intelligence) bridges human and computer language, making communication easy, natural, and effective.
How will productivity change?
Work is automated to improve business-process efficiency and reduce delivery costs. Nobody invests in technology without a realistic prospect of greater organizational productivity, particularly when measurable financial results are expected and ROI (
Return on Investment) is calculated carefully. Higher efficiency in
robotized business processes, even solely in customer service, can substantially reduce personnel costs. In one call center, an AI bot was introduced to accelerate the training of new consultants. It shortened onboarding so employees reached expected business and quality indicators—KPI (
Key Performance Indicators) and NPS (
Net Promoter Score)—faster. The bot worked in the background during customer conversations. Regardless of the communication channel, it listened for key words and phrases, launched the appropriate automated scenario, and supplied step-by-step instructions. It also moved the consultant automatically to the correct CRM screen, eliminating laborious navigation. Time spent searching systems fell significantly, and customers more often received a satisfactory answer at the first attempt
[iii]. Robotization’s business impact is advancing, and conversational AI tools are only beginning to demonstrate their power.
Will error margins decrease?
The only correct answer is: it depends. Too many factors affect error-free robot operation for an unequivocal answer. Technology is designed to be reliable, but bot creators and users ultimately determine its error margin. AI training data also affects results, sometimes unpredictably. Experience across industries nevertheless shows that people are often the least reliable link in operational chains. As algorithms are trained and processes optimized, error numbers can reasonably be expected to approach zero asymptotically. Some matters will always require human intervention or interaction, however, and anything can then happen. Stanisław Lem’s inspiring story “The Inquest,” from Tales of Pirx the Pilot, illustrates the relationship between people and AI-equipped machines and the conflict between humans and products of their science and civilization—automatons as sophisticated as thinking computers with personalities.
Will business costs change?
Software vendors must also earn money: the personnel costs of retaining top specialists, designers, and programmers are reflected in solution prices. At current IT rates, licenses, infrastructure, and a suitable environment are substantial expenses. Yet business-process robotization and the resulting efficiency gains more than compensate for them. Large investments are required, but the benefits should provide a return. Its size depends on process characteristics and the treatment of hidden automation costs. In a call center where bots take most customer conversations, consultant numbers fall and the IT department grows slightly to maintain bots throughout their
life cycle, but overall operating costs decline substantially. A manufacturing or retail company in which labor is a small proportion of total cost cannot expect savings on the same scale; productivity and revenue growth become more important. Calculating
expected robotization ROI requires estimating how many full-time roles robots can replace and recognizing their ability to operate around the clock. One license might equal three positions, and a robot may work faster. In practice this can be overoptimistic: robots may operate only during human working hours, and delays in the systems they use can leave them waiting for applications, so one bot may equal only one position. Replacing a person with automation will probably reduce costs through the absence of wage pressure, benefits, and leave. Global robotization and automation trends are stable
[iv]: the market grows by about 24% annually, the number of entirely unautomated enterprises is falling rapidly, and companies increasingly want more precise analysis of automation costs and gains.
[i] https://www.wiadomoscihandlowe.pl/artykul/na-rynku-brak-pracownikow-o-odpowiednich-kompetencjach
[ii] https://thenewstack.io/how-visicalcs-spreadsheets-changed-the-world/
[iii] Gazeta Finansowa – Biznes Raport no. 17 – Call Center Market 2021, January 22–28, 2021
[iv] https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/robotic-process-automation-rpa-market-102042
